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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">bzhb</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Бетон и железобетон</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Concrete and Reinforced Concrete</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0005-9889</issn><issn pub-type="epub">3034-1302</issn><publisher><publisher-name>АО «НИЦ «Строительство»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.31659/0005-9889-2022-614-6-40-50</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">bzhb-98</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Статьи</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Алгоритмы надежности для расчета-прогноза долговечности железобетона при хлоридной агрессии: анализ методологии и приложений</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Reliability algorithms for calculating and predicting the durability of reinforced concrete under chloride aggression: analysis of methodology and applications</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Леонович</surname><given-names>С. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Leonovich</surname><given-names>S. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д-р техн. наук, иностранный академик РААСН, главный научный сотрудник «Центра научных исследований и испытаний строительных конструкций (ЦНИИСК) филиала БНТУ «Научно-исследовательский политехнический институт»</p><p>e-mail: sleonovich@mail.ru </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Doctor of Sciences (Engineering), Foreign Academician of the RAACS, Chief Researcher of the Center for Scientific Research and Testing of Building Structures branch of the BNTU “Research Polytechnic Institute”</p><p>e-mail: sleonovich@mail.ru </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">sleonovich@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Шалый</surname><given-names>Е. Е.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shaly</surname><given-names>E. E.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>инженер</p><p>e-mail: john_shamali@mail.ru </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Engineer</p><p>e-mail: john_shamali@mail.ru </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">john_shamali@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Литвиновский</surname><given-names>Д. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Litvinovsky</surname><given-names>D. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>гл. инженер</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Main engineer</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Степанова</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Stepanova</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>инженер</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Engineer</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Малюк</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Malyuk</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>ген. директор</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>General director</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-4"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Колодей</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kolodey</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>инженер</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Engineer</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Белорусский национальный технический университет</institution><country>Беларусь</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Belarusian National Technical University</institution><country>Belarus</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Дальневосточный федеральный университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Far Eastern Federal University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ООО «ИнжСпецСтройПроект»</institution><country>Беларусь</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>InzhSpetsStroyProekt LLC</institution><country>Belarus</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-4"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ООО «Трансстрой-Трест»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Transstroy-Trest LLC</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2022</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>21</day><month>09</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>614</volume><issue>6</issue><fpage>40</fpage><lpage>50</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Леонович С.Н., Шалый Е.Е., Литвиновский Д.А., Степанова А.В., Малюк В.В., Колодей А.В., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Леонович С.Н., Шалый Е.Е., Литвиновский Д.А., Степанова А.В., Малюк В.В., Колодей А.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Leonovich S.N., Shaly E.E., Litvinovsky D.A., Stepanova A.V., Malyuk V.V., Kolodey A.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.bzhb.ru/jour/article/view/98">https://www.bzhb.ru/jour/article/view/98</self-uri><abstract><p>Проведен анализ вероятностного начала коррозии в железобетонных конструкциях, подверженных проникновению ионов хлорида. Прочность конструкции является важным критерием, который должен оцениваться в каждом типе конструкции, особенно когда эти конструкции эксплуатируются в агрессивных средах. Рассматривая железобетонные элементы, процесс диффузии хлоридов широко используется для оценки долговечности. Поэтому при моделировании этого явления коррозия арматуры может быть лучше оценена и предотвращена. Эти процессы начинаются при достижении порогового уровня концентрации хлоридов на стальных стержнях арматуры. Несмотря на надежность нескольких моделей, предложенных в литературе, детерминированные подходы не могут точно предсказать время начала коррозии из-за случайности, наблюдаемой в этом процессе. В связи с этим долговечность может быть более реалистично представлена с использованием вероятностных подходов. В статье представлен вероятностный анализ проникновения ионов хлорида. Проникновение ионов хлорида моделируется с использованием второго закона диффузии Фика. Этот закон представляет собой процесс диффузии хлоридов, учитывая зависящие от времени эффекты. Вероятность отказа рассчитывается с использованием моделирования Монте-Карло и метода надежности первого порядка (FORM) с подходом прямой связи. Для изучения этих явлений рассматриваются некоторые примеры и предлагается упрощенный метод определения оптимальных значений для защитного слоя бетона.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The article deals with the analysis of the probabilistic onset of corrosion in reinforced concrete structures subject to the penetration of chloride ions. Structural strength is an important criterion that must be evaluated in every type of structure, especially when these structures are operated in aggressive environments. When considering reinforced concrete members, the chloride diffusion process is widely used to evaluate durability. Therefore, by simulating this phenomenon, reinforcement corrosion can be better assessed and prevented. These processes begin when a threshold level of chloride concentration on the steel reinforcement bars is reached. Despite the reliability of several models proposed in the literature, deterministic approaches cannot accurately predict the time of onset of corrosion due to the randomness observed in this process. In this regard, durability can be more realistically represented using probabilistic approaches. The article presents a probabilistic analysis of the penetration of chloride ions. The penetration of chloride ions is modeled using Fick’s second law of diffusion. This law represents the diffusion process of chlorides, taking into account time-dependent effects. The failure probability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and first order reliability method (FORM) with a feed-forward approach. To study these phenomena, some examples are considered and a simplified method is proposed for determining the optimal values for the concrete cover.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>алгоритмы надежности</kwd><kwd>железобетон</kwd><kwd>долговечность</kwd><kwd>расчет-прогноз</kwd><kwd>защитный слой бетона</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>reliability algorithms</kwd><kwd>reinforced concrete</kwd><kwd>durability</kwd><kwd>calculation-forecast</kwd><kwd>protective layer of concrete</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ueli Angst, Bernhard Elsener, Claus K. Larsen, Øystein Vennesland. Critical chloride content in reinforced concrete – A review. &lt;i&gt;Cement and Concrete Research&lt;/i&gt;. 2009. 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